Inflation falls below 3% for first time since 2021

From @TheStalwart: A neat way to characterize yesterday’s US inflation data:
“The number was a bit of a yawner, which perhaps is a further sign that the era of everyone being on pins and needles over each inflation report is coming to an end. I thought the best characterization…

— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) August 15, 2024

The latest data shows that the consumer price index slowed to a 2.9 percent annual increase in July, down from 3 percent in June. This marks the first time since March 2021 that inflation has fallen below 3 percent. Prices rose more than expected in July.

The @WSJ on expectations for the US CPI inflation data scheduled to be released tomorrow morning.#economy #inflation #markets #EconTwitter pic.twitter.com/rtKm7AqtKg

— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) August 13, 2024

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest CPI report, consumer prices increased by 2.9% for the 12 months ending in July. Prices rose 0.2% every month, following a 0.1% decline the previous month. According to FactSet consensus estimates, economists had forecast a 0.2% monthly increase and an annual rise of 3%.

Both headline and core CPI increased 0.2% in July, consistent with market expectations.  On a yearly basis, the CPI was up 2.9% (headline) and 3.2% (core), the lowest yearly rates since March and April of 2021.  1/ pic.twitter.com/h6MwkK1Qv3

— Council of Economic Advisers (@WhiteHouseCEA) August 14, 2024

“Breaking the 3% barrier is a key psychological positive,” said Sung Won Sohn, a professor of finance and economics at Loyola Marymount University and chief economist of SS Economics. “It shows that inflation is not only trending down, but disinflation is on track.” Excluding the volatile categories of gas and food, core CPI rose 0.2% from June and saw its annual rate slow to 3.2% from 3.3%. Core CPI inflation is now running at its slowest pace since April 2021. The cost of owning and renting a home increased by 0.4%, with the shelter index accounting for nearly 90% of the monthly increase. Shelter, which accounts for over one-third of the overall CPI, has been the biggest impediment to inflation’s descent. However, economists believe this hurdle will soon diminish as the Bureau of Labor Statistics measurement of housing-related prices begins to reflect the slower, if not flat, rent hikes in recent months. Housing costs increased dramatically during the pandemic due to heightened demand for remote work, which strained an already low inventory. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hiking campaign exacerbated the issue by making borrowing costs more expensive for renters, buyers, and builders. Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Boston College, noted that the chronic housing shortage might worsen if the situation persists.

Inflation trends down to new lows

On an annual basis, the shelter index is up 5.1% through July, down from its peak of 8.2% in March 2023, according to BLS data. “If you look at the future, it’s pretty clear that the inflation picture will continue to improve,” Sohn said. Excluding shelter, the CPI rose by 1.7% for the 12 months ending in July. Energy prices, particularly gasoline, were flat for July, while food prices continued to rise modestly, with grocery prices up 0.1% for the month and restaurant prices up 0.2%. On an annual basis, grocery and restaurant prices are up 1.1% and 4.1%, respectively. The goods category saw a continuation of disinflation and outright deflation in July. Services ticked up by 0.3%. The indexes for used cars and trucks, medical care, airline fares, and apparel were among those that decreased from June. Wednesday’s report builds on a solid June report, which helped reassure the Federal Reserve and markets that inflation is indeed moderating. “If you look at the reported monthly gains—0.2% overall, 0.2% on the core—that is considered to be perfectly acceptable,” said Boston College’s Bethune. “But if you take a look under the hood, it’s actually even better than that.” The central bank has indicated a need for more sustained progress in slowing inflation before loosening monetary policy. However, a weaker-than-expected jobs report for July, which saw a rise in unemployment to 4.3%, has intensified recession fears. Christopher Rupkey, chief economist for FwdBonds LLC, noted that while inflation isn’t dead, deflation in commodity prices is balancing out moderate inflation in some services, mainly from higher housing costs. Although the CPI is the most widely used barometer of inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for its 2% target is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Robert Triest, an economics professor at Northeastern University, suggested that the upcoming PCE report might show an even more favorable inflation picture. Jared Bernstein, the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, touted the latest CPI data but also emphasized that “no victory laps” should be taken just yet, as many families still face high costs.