Harris gains lead over Trump nationally

I am proud to watch my partner Kamala Harris accept our nomination for president. She will be an outstanding president because she is fighting for our future.

Tune in for the last night of the Democratic National Convention.
https://t.co/fuakb3SsSp

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) August 23, 2024

Harris, who became the Democratic nominee after Joe Biden dropped out of the race in July, has seen a surge in support among key demographic groups. A poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University found Harris leading Trump by 7 points nationally, with 50 percent support compared to Trump’s 43 percent. Though many polls say Trump is ahead — US News and World Report said to ignore the polls because the Electoral College will decide the vote — not the popular vote. This strange practice of the Electoral College may not really serve the United States any longer.

RFK Jr. in a nutshell: per @CookPolitical's swing state polls, his image is a dismal 35/53 (-18) among high-engagement voters, but 45/33 (+12) among low/mids. No one else's image is remotely that polarized. https://t.co/DHjkj3THGe

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 24, 2024

The poll highlighted Harris’s strong backing from liberals, progressives, and moderates, while Trump maintained a lead among conservatives and his core “MAGA” supporters. Dan Cassino, a professor at Fairleigh Dickinson and the poll’s executive director, noted that race and gender play significant roles in Harris’s lead. “Trump has built his political career around a precise performance of whiteness and masculinity,” Cassino claims. “In the past, that’s been seen as a strength, but it’s no longer clear that it’s working.”

Today's update.

We are already seeing a convention bounce for Harris, and this is from data BEFORE her speech last night.https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa pic.twitter.com/qn7KfYydnH

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 24, 2024

The poll also found that when voters are prompted to consider race and gender, Harris’s lead grows substantially. Without this prompt, support for Harris and Trump is nearly tied. Since replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee, Harris claims to have significant gains among young, nonwhite, and female voters while making relatively few or no gains among older voters and white men.

Trump in latest polls

Supposed gains have helped Harris close the gap with Trump in key battleground states. When asked about Harris’s increasing support in the polls, Trump dismissed the notion, telling Fox News anchor Martha MacCallum, “No, she’s not having success. I’m having success. I’m doing great with Hispanic voters and Black men. I’m doing great with women because women want safety,” though how that will play out is a guess. Despite Harris’s recent gains, political strategists caution that it is too early to draw definitive conclusions about the November election. With more debates and potential poll-shifting moments, the race remains competitive. National polling averages, which combine head-to-head and multi-candidate polls, provide a snapshot of the current state of the race. These averages show Harris polling above Trump for the first time since becoming the nominee, but they should not be seen as a definitive predictor of the election outcome, which will ultimately be decided by the electoral college.