A Canadian defence consultant has revealed that billions of dollars are at stake as competition heats up to replace Canada’s aging submarine fleet. The procurement process, which has been anticipated for several years, is now gaining momentum as the current Victoria-class submarines approach the end of their operational lifespan.
The Royal Canadian Navy currently operates four Victoria-class submarines, purchased from the United Kingdom in 1998. These vessels have faced numerous maintenance challenges and increasing operational costs as they age, prompting the government to explore replacement options.
Multi-Billion Dollar Procurement
According to the defence consultant, the submarine replacement program represents one of the largest military procurement projects in Canadian history. Early estimates suggest the total cost could exceed $10 billion, making it a highly sought-after contract for international defence contractors.
Several major submarine manufacturers are reportedly positioning themselves to bid on the contract, including companies from France, Germany, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Each brings different submarine technologies and capabilities to the table, from conventional diesel-electric propulsion to advanced air-independent propulsion systems.
The procurement process is expected to evaluate factors including:
- Arctic operational capability
- Cost-effectiveness and maintenance requirements
- Technology transfer and industrial benefits for Canadian industry
- Interoperability with NATO allies
Strategic Importance
Naval experts point out that submarines play a critical role in Canada’s defence strategy, particularly given the country’s vast coastline—the longest in the world—and growing international interest in Arctic resources and shipping routes.
“Submarines provide a strategic deterrent and surveillance capability that surface vessels simply cannot match,” the consultant explained. “They allow Canada to monitor its waters and project power in ways that are essential for sovereignty protection.”
The replacement program comes at a time of increased global submarine activity, with Russia expanding its underwater fleet and China rapidly developing its submarine capabilities. These developments have heightened the importance of maintaining advanced submarine capabilities among Western nations.
Industrial Benefits and Political Considerations
Beyond the military aspects, the submarine program represents significant industrial opportunities. Defence contractors are expected to offer substantial industrial and technological benefits packages as part of their bids, potentially creating thousands of jobs across Canada.
The government faces complex decisions regarding the balance between military requirements, industrial benefits, and fiscal constraints. Previous major defence procurements in Canada have often been subject to delays and political controversy.
Regional considerations may also play a role, with shipyards and suppliers across different provinces competing for work shares in the program. The Irving Shipyard in Halifax and Seaspan in Vancouver, which are already involved in other naval construction programs, may seek roles in the submarine project.
Timeline and Challenges
The defence consultant indicated that the formal request for proposals could be issued within the next 18-24 months, with a contract award potentially following in 2025-2026. However, actual delivery of new submarines would likely not begin until the early 2030s, given the complex nature of submarine construction.
This timeline creates challenges for maintaining submarine capabilities, as the Victoria-class vessels may need life extensions to remain operational until replacements arrive. The navy has already invested in upgrades to extend their service life, but further investments may be necessary.
The procurement also faces technical challenges, including whether to opt for conventional submarines or more advanced technologies such as air-independent propulsion or even small modular reactor-powered vessels, which would significantly enhance underwater endurance.
As international competition for the contract intensifies, Canadian officials will need to navigate complex technical, financial, and political considerations to ensure the navy receives capable submarines that can protect Canadian interests for decades to come.
