New York Fed survey reveals pay discontent

From the Bloomberg article, “Expectation of Losing One’s Job at Record High in NY Fed Survey.”#economy #jobs #employment #EconTwitter pic.twitter.com/nz2qMr3qNb

— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) August 19, 2024

Americans are increasingly worried about losing their jobs, according to a new survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released on Monday. The survey revealed that the expected likelihood of becoming unemployed rose to an average of 4.4 percent in July, up from 3.9 percent the previous year. This marks the highest level since data collection began in 2014. The survey indicated multiple signs of a weakening labor market.

BLS's preliminary benchmark revision shows that 818,000 fewer jobs were created from Mar 2023 to Mar 2024 than originally reported.

I take no signal about the economy from this for several reasons.

A short 🧵. (Also see nice writeup by @bencasselman https://t.co/wIugoDJn9x) pic.twitter.com/7kHDKbILZp

— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) August 21, 2024

People reported job losses, lowered salary expectations, and an increased belief that they would need to work past traditional retirement ages. One of the most striking findings was the share of workers who reported searching for a job in the past four weeks. This surged to 28.4 percent, up sharply from 19.4 percent in July 2023.

NY Fed survey shows the share of individuals who reported searching for a job increased to the highest level in the 10-year history of the survey

Among those with jobs, the average expected likelihood of becoming unemployed also jumped to a series high https://t.co/bf1jTTj1I4 pic.twitter.com/yzHvcmJzyW

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) August 20, 2024

The survey, which quizzes a nationally representative sample of people on their recent economic experiences, suggested that meaningful fissures might be forming in the labor market.

Fed survey signals job market concerns

This report comes at a tense moment, as economists and central bankers are nervously observing the job market for signs of deterioration. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent in July, prompting concerns among economy watchers. Typically, the jobless rate does not increase sharply outside of an economic recession. However, the slowdown in the labor market has not been widely corroborated by other data sources. Jobless claims have fluctuated but remain relatively low. Consumer spending also continues to be strong, with reports indicating that shoppers are still spending robustly. As the labor market survey shows potential cracks, Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome H. Powell, are vigilantly monitoring for weaknesses as they prepare for significant upcoming policy decisions. The survey’s findings add to the complex economic picture that policymakers must navigate in the coming months.