Harris closes gap in Trump polling

Vice President @KamalaHarris is in Atlanta to underscore all that is at stake in this election. There’s too much on the line to sit this race out. Tune in now. https://t.co/JkSdtWpAF6

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 30, 2024

Vice President Kamala Harris has cut former President Donald Trump’s lead in half in the race for the White House. A new polling average shows Harris trailing Trump by only 1.3 points, with 46.2 percent support compared to Trump’s 47.5 percent. The polling average, relaunched by Cook Political Report, includes 15 surveys conducted over the last 60 days.

The vibes among Dem voters I talked to for our latest @AP poll:

“I really want to go out and maybe knock on doors, which I would’ve never done."

"I have just been so terrified that we were going to lose.”

“Donald Trump is the old guy now." https://t.co/5RSLYpyqo3

— Seung Min Kim (@seungminkim) July 31, 2024

Harris has shown improvements among key demographic groups, leading Trump by 7.7 points among women, 53.1 points among Black voters, and 10.4 points among Hispanic voters. Harris is also recording strong net favorable ratings as the presumptive Democratic nominee. A Mainstreet Research and Florida Atlantic University survey found that 53 percent of registered voters view Harris favorably, compared to 44 percent who view her unfavorably.

Today's newsletter is quite wonky, with more detail on how Harris swapping out for Biden affects the model's forecast.https://t.co/9pmlfiWQTH

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 31, 2024

In contrast, Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance is struggling, with 44 percent of voters holding an unfavorable view of him and only 41 percent having a favorable view. Vance’s net favorable rating of -3 points comes amid scrutiny of his past comments about women and abortion. The Mainstreet Research/FAU poll also found Harris leading Trump 48 percent to 46 percent in a head-to-head race among likely voters.

Harris narrows gap against Trump

When an independent candidate was included, Harris still beat Trump by 1 point, 44 percent to 43 percent. Other recent polls show similar trends. An Economist/YouGov poll found Harris’ unfavorable rating has fallen by 3 points, while her favorable rating increased by 4 points since Biden ended his reelection campaign. The same poll showed Vance with a net favorable rating of -10 points. Harris has erased Trump’s lead both nationwide and in key battleground states. A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll shows Harris ahead of Trump in Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada, while Trump leads in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. The pair are tied in Georgia. During a campaign event in Atlanta, Harris challenged Trump to keep his commitment to debate her in September. Trump has sought to portray Harris as a candidate with extreme positions, calling her a “radical left-liberal, San Francisco extremist.” As the race heats up, Harris is expected to announce her running mate within days before embarking on a tour of swing states that will decide the election on November 5.