Lichtman warns Democrats against replacing Biden

by / ⠀News / July 9, 2024
Lichtman warns

Allan Lichtman, a historian known for predicting U.S. presidential elections, warns Democrats against replacing President Joe Biden as their nominee. Lichtman has correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 elections using a system of 13 historical factors. In an interview on “Fox News Sunday,” Lichtman said that if Democratic delegates rebel against Biden at the upcoming convention, it would lead to chaos.

He noted that while there are no significant signs that delegates would choose another candidate, the consequences could be severe. Biden won Democratic primaries in all 50 states this year, securing thousands of delegates. Lichtman argued that historical precedent shows replacing an incumbent at the convention leads to party turmoil.

This is especially relevant since Biden has met two of the 13 predictive keys: being an incumbent president and having no significant party contest this year.

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Lichtman cautions against Biden replacement

Lichtman’s electoral prediction model includes factors related to politics, performance, and candidate personality.

The incumbent party needs to lose six of these keys to lose control of the White House. Debate performance, which some Democrats have scrutinized in Biden’s case, is not among the determining factors in Lichtman’s model. Lichtman also warned that challenging Biden could set up a scenario similar to 2016, which led to Donald Trump’s election.

An open seat with no incumbent running and a party contest could fragment the party’s unity. President Biden has committed to leading the Democratic ticket, and only a few Democratic lawmakers have suggested that he should pass the torch. The party’s decision toward unity or rebellion will be pivotal as the convention approaches.

About The Author

Nathan Ross

Nathan Ross is a seasoned business executive and mentor. His writing offers a unique blend of practical wisdom and strategic thinking, from years of experience in managing successful enterprises. Through his articles, Nathan inspires the next generation of CEOs and entrepreneurs, sharing insights on effective decision-making, team leadership, and sustainable growth strategies.

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