Can the US Dollar Recover from COVID-19?

by / ⠀News / March 13, 2024
Inflation Pressure

The U.S. Dollar has been grappling with recent pressures and its struggle against G10 counterparts. The surge in inflation rates, aggravated by increased government spending and COVID-19 recovery efforts, has contributed to its downward tilt.

Market gurus anticipate that the dollar’s global market position may be further weakened by any additional stimulus measures. However, despite these pressures, the U.S. remains among the world’s top economies, lending the dollar some stability.

The currency’s status as the world’s leading reserve currency cushions its slide while forecasts indicate a mixed short-term future. Experts suggest a long-term stabilization powered by the economic strength of the U.S.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is seen as a potential revival source for the sagging Dollar. This report is key for measuring inflation and gauging the health of the nation’s economy. A positive report could boost the Dollar’s value, indicating economic growth driven by consumer spending. However, high inflation sans economic growth could lead to a further weakening of the dollar.

Global pandemic-induced economic uncertainties have caused investors to keenly monitor the US CPI reports. The outcomes could affect not only the Dollar’s value, but global equity markets and monetary policies as well.

Regarding global currencies, the falling Dollar has seen the EUR/USD maintain gains, the GBP/USD increasing losses attributed to escalating UK unemployment rates, while the AUD/USD benefits from Australia’s resilient economy. The USD/CAD is on a downward trend due to Canada’s accelerating economic recovery and strong oil prices.

Emerging markets currencies also show mixed responses to the depreciating Dollar. The USD/ZAR has seen an upswing as the South African economy grapples with societal unrest and economic instability. In contrast, the USD/BRL is in decline due to Brazil’s surging commodity exports and slightly stabilizing political scenario.

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Looking ahead, the U.S. inflation data projects an annual growth rate of 3.1% for February, echoing the significant raise seen in January. Economic reports also predict an aggregated GDP growth of 2.9%, consistent with stable economic expansion. Furthermore, the labor market remains robust, with an expected 3.8% unemployment rate in February reflecting solid job gains.

Commodities markets are expecting the price of crude oil to rise to $75 per barrel, an increase from last month’s average of $71. Housing sector projections show 1.7 million new housing starts, due to low mortgage interest rates and tight supply.

Gold prices faced a slight setback ending a nine-day record-streak possibly as traders decided to liquidate before the U.S. CPI announcement. Factors such as macroeconomic signals, technological advancements in commodities trading, and global political climate seem to have an effect on the gold market.

Meanwhile, in the crypto realm, according to financial analytics firm Blofin, Ethereum’s prospects for a Spot Ether ETF face challenges primarily due to regulatory concerns. Despite these issues, many investors remain bullish on Ethereum, seeing the inherent value beyond SEC’s potential decision regarding a Spot Ethereum ETF.

About The Author

Kimberly Zhang

Editor in Chief of Under30CEO. I have a passion for helping educate the next generation of leaders.

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