Grim Forecast: Economist Warns of 35% Plunge in Office Building Prices, Prolonged Recovery Expected

by / ⠀News / June 27, 2023
Grim Forecast: Economist Warns of 35% Plunge in Office Building Prices, Prolonged Recovery Expected

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, office building prices are facing an uncertain future. A recent report by Capital Economics predicts a massive drop in office values over the next two years, with recovery potentially taking decades. The shift towards remote work has significantly impacted office demand, leaving landlords with empty properties and financial challenges. This article delves into the factors contributing to the decline in office building prices, explores the implications for the commercial real estate sector, and discusses potential strategies for navigating this challenging landscape.

The surge in remote work has fundamentally transformed the way businesses operate. As employees increasingly embrace flexible work arrangements, office spaces have become less essential. Capital Economics deputy chief property economist, Kiran Raichura, warns that the reduction in office demand due to remote work could result in a hit to net operating incomes (NOIs) on par with or worse than the decline experienced by malls over the past six years.

According to a survey conducted by Knight Frank and Cresa, 56% of firms globally now allow hybrid work, while 12% are planning to adopt fully flexible work arrangements. These statistics indicate a significant shift in the way companies view office spaces. Furthermore, data on office keycard swipes reveals that physical occupancy is currently only at 35%. These figures paint a grim picture for the future of office building prices.

Raichura predicts a staggering 35% crash in the value of office buildings by the end of 2025. This projection is supported by the growing trend of real estate investors diverting their capital away from office buildings. The office real estate investment trust returns index is currently less than half of the all-equity REIT index. These numbers indicate a significant loss of confidence in the office building market.

The potential long-term consequences of this downturn are worrisome. Even if office prices were to recover, it could take until 2040 for them to reach their pre-pandemic peaks. This extended recovery period, coupled with the impact of inflation, would still leave office building prices significantly lower in real terms. Raichura suggests that the demolition and conversion of underperforming assets may partially alleviate the impact on valuation-based indices. However, landlords will bear the costs of these measures, making the road ahead arduous for office owners.

The decline in office building prices has broader implications for the commercial real estate sector. Since the pandemic, office vacancy rates in the United States have risen to around 20%. This alarming statistic, estimated by Bloomberg, highlights the challenges faced by landlords in attracting tenants and maintaining rental income. Morgan Stanley further compounds the issue, forecasting a 40% drop in commercial real estate prices overall. This prediction raises concerns about the stability of the entire commercial real estate market.

Given the gloomy outlook for office building prices, landlords and real estate investors must adapt their strategies to navigate this challenging landscape. While the future may seem uncertain, there are steps that can be taken to mitigate the potential impact.

Real estate investors should consider diversifying their property portfolios to include asset classes that have shown resilience in the face of changing market dynamics. For instance, industrial spaces and data centers have seen increased demand due to the growth of e-commerce and digital infrastructure. Investing in these sectors can help offset potential losses from office buildings.

As remote work becomes more prevalent, repurposing office spaces can be a viable strategy. Landlords can explore converting office buildings into residential units, co-working spaces, or mixed-use developments. This adaptive reuse can help meet the evolving needs of the market and generate alternative revenue streams.

Implementing technology solutions within office buildings can enhance the value proposition for potential tenants. Smart building systems, touchless entry, and advanced security measures are increasingly attractive features that cater to the changing expectations of tenants. Embracing technology can help differentiate office spaces and increase their appeal in a competitive market.

To attract and retain tenants in a challenging market, landlords should prioritize tenant experience. This includes offering flexible lease terms, creating collaborative and amenity-rich environments, and providing exceptional customer service. By fostering a positive tenant experience, landlords can increase occupancy rates and maintain a steady stream of rental income.

To mitigate the impact of declining office building prices, landlords can explore alternative revenue streams within their properties. This may include leasing space for events, hosting co-working spaces, or partnering with service providers to offer additional amenities. Diversifying income sources can help offset potential losses from decreasing office rental income.

The future of office building prices appears bleak, with a forecasted plunge of 35% and a prolonged recovery period. The rise of remote work has significantly reduced office demand, leaving landlords grappling with empty properties and financial challenges. However, by diversifying property portfolios, repurposing office spaces, embracing technology, focusing on tenant experience, and exploring alternative revenue streams, landlords and real estate investors can navigate this challenging landscape. Adapting to the changing market dynamics and embracing innovative strategies will be crucial for surviving and thriving in the post-pandemic era of commercial real estate.

First reported on Business Insider

About The Author

Kimberly Zhang

Editor in Chief of Under30CEO. I have a passion for helping educate the next generation of leaders.

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