Americans are heading into the holiday season ready to spend more on gifts than they did last year, as price pressures tied to tariffs weigh on store shelves and online carts. A new NerdWallet survey indicates gift budgets are set to rise by nearly $200 on average, hinting at both stronger demand and higher costs. The findings arrive as retailers finalize promotions and families lock in travel and gifting plans across the United States.
The signal is clear: shoppers expect to pay more. The question now is how much of that increase reflects higher prices versus bigger shopping lists, and what it means for retail margins, household debt, and year-end sales reports.
Survey Signals Bigger Budgets
“Holiday shoppers plan to spend nearly $200 more, on average, on gifts this year than last year, potentially due to tariff-related price increases, a new NerdWallet survey finds.”
The headline number points to a meaningful jump in planned spending. It suggests that consumers see less room to negotiate with their wallets, even as many plan purchases earlier to catch sales. The timing aligns with widespread discounting that retailers often use to pull demand forward. If shoppers believe prices will not ease, they may check out sooner and in larger amounts.
Higher planned spend does not always translate to higher units sold. Retailers could see flat volumes but larger receipts if price tags do the heavy lifting. That split will matter for inventory, staffing, and fourth-quarter profit guidance.
Tariffs And Price Pressures
Tariffs raise costs for imported goods. Businesses often pass some of those costs to consumers, either through higher list prices or fewer markdowns. The survey’s mention of tariff-linked pressure aligns with basic trade economics and with what many buyers have seen across categories in recent years.
Price effects can vary by product. Items with thin margins or few substitutes are more likely to reflect higher import costs. Others may see slower increases if retailers offset expenses with private-label products or scale back buying. The result is a mixed shelf: some categories post sticker shock while others hold steady through promotions.
Retail executives have tried to balance price increases with special offers. They also rely on shipment timing to manage duty exposure. Those tools can soften the hit, but not erase it. The survey’s $200 gap suggests shoppers are noticing.
How Households And Retailers May Respond
Consumers are adapting with a mix of budgeting and timing strategies. Many plan to track prices, compare brands, and shift to practical gifts. Others could use “buy now, pay later” plans to spread payments, though that adds risk if bills stack up in January.
- Shoppers may buy earlier to secure sale prices.
- Gift lists could lean toward lower-priced items or store brands.
- Experiences and gift cards may replace some physical goods.
Retailers, for their part, are likely to lean on targeted promotions and loyalty rewards. They may bundle items, offer limited-time coupons, or add free shipping thresholds to lift average order value. If tariffs squeeze margins, stores may focus on fewer, deeper deals instead of broad markdowns.
Broader Economic Context
Household budgets remain sensitive after a long period of elevated prices. Wage gains have helped some buyers, but higher borrowing costs and rent increases have strained others. In that environment, an extra $200 for gifts can be meaningful. It may also shift spending away from dining out or travel, depending on each family’s priorities.
In the retail sector, higher nominal sales, driven by price increases, can flatter revenue but mask volume softness. Investors and analysts will watch unit trends, inventory levels, and return rates to gauge true demand. Strong final weekends in December can still change the picture, particularly if weather or late-season promotions pull shoppers back.
What To Watch Next
Several markers will indicate whether planned spending translates into actual sales. Early-season foot traffic, online conversion rates, and average order values are key. So are credit card delinquencies and buy-now-pay-later usage, which may reveal underlying stress.
Policy signals also matter. Any new trade actions or exemptions could influence pricing into 2025. Retailers will adjust spring orders based on how this season ends, setting the tone for the next cycle.
The takeaway is straightforward: shoppers expect to spend more on gifts, and tariffs are part of the story. Whether retailers can protect margins without losing customers will define the season’s winners.
